Perfect calibration means a 70% confidence pick wins 70% of the time. See how we measure up across 555 settled predictions.
555
Settled Predictions
0.2502
Brier Score (lower is better)
6
Confidence Buckets
| Confidence Band | Predicted % | Actual % | Delta | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-54% | 52.0% | 43.4% | -8.6% | 166 |
| 55-59% | 57.0% | 64.4% | +7.4% | 174 |
| 60-64% | 62.0% | 52.2% | -9.8% | 46 |
| 65-69% | 67.0% | 53.1% | -13.9% | 32 |
| 70-74% | 72.0% | 61.9% | -10.1% | 42 |
| 75-79% | 77.0% | 60.0% | -17.0% | 95 |
What is calibration? A well-calibrated model's stated confidence matches reality. If we say 80% confidence, those picks should win about 80% of the time.
What is the Brier Score? It measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. A score of 0 is perfect; 0.25 is no better than a coin flip. Lower is better.
The diagonal line on the chart represents perfect calibration. Points above the line mean we're underconfident (actual wins exceed predicted); points below mean we're overconfident.